Tuesday, March 31, 2009

Hotsheets March 30, 2009

Chicago Activity












Street # CP Str Name Sfx Unit # City Area # Rms Beds Baths List Price Sold Pr Closed Date
1 345 N LaSalle St 2209 Chicago 8008 2 0 1 $144,900 $133,000 (F) 3/27/2009
2 1455 N Sandburg Ter 502 Chicago 8008 4 1 1 $188,900 $182,250 3/30/2009
3 260 E Chestnut St 511 Chicago 8008 3 0 1 $189,000 $178,500 3/27/2009
4 451 W Huron
908 Chicago 8008 4 2 2 $459,900 $444,000 3/30/2009
5 175 E Delaware Pl 7006 Chicago 8008 5 2 2 $489,000 $455,000 2/27/2009
6 525 W Superior St 325 Chicago 8008 5 2 2 $549,000 $515,000 3/30/2009

Should Renters Jump Into the Housing Market?

Source: Wall Street Journal Online www.wsj.com

Tuesday, March 3, 2009

Keller Williams is out performing the industry!

  • #3 in the country
  • Only real estate franchise to increase in total # of sales
  • Beat the National Association of Realtors agent trends by 30%
  • Only real estate company to grow in agent count and offices
  • OPEN BOOK accounting principles
  • Keller Williams International Realty is $0 (that is zero) in debt
  • Our agent count is up 52%.
  • Closed units are up 26%.

Trump, lenders in temporary truce regarding lawsuits

Monday, March 2, 2009

Concierge Media Group

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Market Update

Source is Mortgage broker Sergio Giangrande

Stocks around the globe are lower on fears that the recession is getting worse. Last Friday, US Stocks closed February with their worst performance since 1933. The S&P 500 dropped 10.9%, and has dropped 18.6% so far this year, the worst start to the year on record. And Stocks are getting no relief at the moment as the Dow trades below 7,000 for the first time since 1997.

Also pressuring Stocks lower is news that insurance giant AIG International is set to receive another lifeline from Uncle Sam to the tune of $30B after losing $61.7B in the 4th quarter of 2008...a record loss for a US company. Think about that. Losing $61B is like losing almost 1 Billion dollars a day for every business day during the quarter...or $125 Million per hour. Scary. And speaking of scary - Stock investors are clearly worried as to how far prices will drop before reaching a bottom. There have been many technical support levels that have been violated. Our charts show that the next floor of support is at 716 on the S&P, which was tested today - that floor goes back to December of 1996. Let's hope that level can hold.

With Stocks in the doldrums, you'd think Bonds would be off to the races. But that's not the case as Bonds can muster only modest gains as they continue to trade sideways, capped by both the 25 and 50-day Moving Averages. Bond Traders are certainly aware that Stocks are due for a major relief rally...and when that happens, Bonds will be sold off a bit. So the smart play for those Bond Traders is to not get too long ahead of the inevitable Stock reversal. Bonds are near unchanged on the day and are already well off the best levels seen earlier in the session. We can Float carefully here, but don't be surprised if you get a Lock Alert, should Stocks finally reverse higher.

In other news, households are hoarding their cash...in January, the Personal Savings Rate rose to a 5% annual rate, a 15-year high. January Personal Spending also rose to 0.6% versus estimates of 0.4%, while Personal Income rose 0.4%, higher than estimates of -0.2%.

By The Number$

1. AFTER 2 MONTHS - The S&P 500 is down 18.2% (total return) after the first 2 months of 2009, double the 9.1% YTD loss that the stock index had incurred at the same point one year ago. The S&P 500 is an unmanaged index of 500 widely held stocks that is generally considered representative of the US stock market (source: S&P, BTN Research).

2. SOME BETTER, SOME WORSE - The S&P 500 is down 18.2% YTD through the end of February 2009. 245 of the index’s 500 stocks are down at least 18% YTD. Another 64 stocks in the index are up YTD (source: NASD.com).

3. MOSTLY UP TO MOSTLY DOWN - The S&P 500 fell 10.6% (total return) in February 2009, its 12th down month in the last 16 months (i.e., an average of 3 down months out of every 4 months). In the 200 months prior to the aforementioned 16-month period, “up” months occurred 2 out of every 3 months (source: BTN Research).

4. CATCHING UP - Over the last 15 years (1994-2008), the S&P 500 is up +6.5% per year on a total return basis. In order to have a trailing 20-year average annual total return of +10% by the end of the year 2013 (i.e., 5 years from now), the S&P 500 would have to produce average gains of +21.3% per year over the 5 years 2009-2013 (source: BTN Research).

5. BETTER DAYS AHEAD - Only 6% of over 200 money managers worldwide that were surveyed in early February 2009 believe the global economy will be worse off a year from now (source: Merrill Lynch).

6. BIGGER LOSS - From the S&P 500’s all-time closing high set on 10/09/07 (1565) to last week’s low close on Friday 2/27/09 (735), the index has fallen 53.0%, a tumble greater than the 49.1% loss sustained during the bear market of 2000-02 or the 48.2% loss that occurred in 1973-74 (source: BTN Research).

7. SINKING FEELING - Since reaching closing highs in October 2007, the market capitalization of all US stocks has declined by more than $10 trillion to last Friday’s close. The total market value of all US stocks has fallen to less than $9 trillion by the end of last week (source: Wilshire, USA Today).

8. NATIONAL STAT - The median net worth of American families that rank in the top 10% of wage earners in the country is $1.1 million while the average net worth of that group is $3.3 million (source: Federal Reserve Board’s Survey of Consumer Finances).

9. UPSIDE DOWN - 30% of US homeowners surveyed within the last month that have mortgage debt on their residence believe their outstanding debt exceeds the current fair market value of their home (source: Pew Research).

10. ENOUGH - Nearly 2 out of every 3 American business executives surveyed (64%) do not support the rescue of any additional US industries beyond the bank and auto bailouts that have already been started by the government (source: Deloitte, USA Today).

11. BIG DROP - The size of the US economy (as measured by the GDP) fell by 6.2% in the 4th quarter 2008 (i.e., quarter-over-quarter change expressed as an annualized result), its worst quarterly change since the 1st quarter 1982. There have been only 3 worst performing quarters in the last 60 years. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the annual market value of all goods and services produced domestically by the US (source: Commerce Department).

12. BAD RESULTS - Collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) are investments that are composed of many different asset-backed securities (ABS). Each ABS is an individual bond made up of a pool of assets, e.g., mortgages, auto loans, student loans or credit card loans). 48% of all CDOs (by volume) issued since 2002 have defaulted (source: Wachovia, Financial Times).

13. BUDGET MANAGEMENT - Only 5 of the 50 US states are projecting a balanced budget for the current 2009 fiscal year and for next year’s 2010 fiscal year. The 5 states are Arkansas, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia and Wyoming (source: Tax Foundation).

14. A VERY LONG TIME - The stimulus package signed into law by President Obama on 2/17/09 has been valued at $787 billion, i.e., the combined value of federal spending and proposed tax cuts over the years 2009-10. It would take an individual spending $1 million a day more than 2,156 years to spend $787 billion (source: BTN Research).

15. MANY CULTURES - More than 2 out of every 5 California families (42%) speak a language other than English within their home (source: USA Today).

Thank you for your trust,

Sergio Giangrande
Mortgage Broker/Banker
United Mortgage Services