Showing posts with label real estate prices. Show all posts
Showing posts with label real estate prices. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Chicago Home Sales

So - several of my clients sent me this article and asked for my comments. I thought I would share this with you too! If a few ask, perhaps more would like to know....

Here you go: Averages are meaningless in our specific luxury market - we are not in the slightest changed by the drop in the $8k tax credit as none of our buyers are in that market. As always, the important information to study for your particular sale or purchase is- building by building and then tier by tier within that building. Nothing else is relevant.

As an example, most units at Trump and Heritage are up 20% over 6 months ago if they are in the prime tiers. In the not prime tiers, it is another story. In some of our other buildings, sales prices are lower by as much as 20%, but there are usually additional reasons - assessments got too high, a special need or special assessment got bad word of mouth going, too many desperate sellers...reasons. But proper marketing and patience gets the job done.

Building by building, tier by tier.

Our Fox Group sales numbers this year are excellent. Out of 5,000 Keller Williams Groups nation-wide, we performed #3. Why? Luxury market, direct marketing techniques, not relying on the old way of doing business. Half of our sales are "on us", meaning we find the buyers through direct means. A lot of luxury buyers are interested in buying "up", enjoying a finer home in a somewhat uncertain economy. While our year would be LOTS better if interested buyers could sell their own homes (Domino Effect), we have some who either have successfully sold or who are buying without selling first.

Person by person, building by building, tier by tier.

We are bullish on our market segment and our numbers show it! Do sellers need patience? Yes. Are lowest price units selling first? Yes again. In my 20 years in real estate, I have never seen a better chance to buy. And if that means savvy, informed sellers may take a little less, then that dictates that they should do that - and buy into the best market they are likely to see in their lifetimes. Sell for less, buy for less still. And buy well so you can appreciate value increase over time.

Basics. Location, location, location? NO! Value, Value, Value.

Monday, June 7, 2010

First 5 Months' Condo Sales Dramatically Increased Compared to 2009

According to figures generated for ChicagoCondosOnline.com by MRED, the regional MLS, year-to-date sales of Chicago condos through May 2010 are:

* Up 47% in total dollar volume, to $1.3 billion
* Up 51% in units closed, to 4,229
* Down 6% in median sales price, to $262,000
* Down 4% in average market time, to 150 days.


Comparing May sales to April:

* Units closed were up 1%, from 1,030 to 1,083 closings
* Dollar volume was up 4%, from $328 million to $341 million
* Median sales price was down 2%, from $270,000 to $264,900
* Average market time was down 6%, from 154 days to 144 days

Tuesday, January 19, 2010

Real Estate Outlook: Strong Sales Predicted

By Kenneth R. Harney, Realty Times

Will housing outperform the overall economy in 2010 as we pull out of the Great Recession?

Nothing is absolute in the predictions business, but there are solid indications that, yes, housing is likely to rebound more energetically than the overall economy.

Here's why: Even the most bearish Wall Street analysts now concede that home sales are up in many areas from year-earlier levels -- sometimes by extraordinary percentages.

For example, MDA DataQuick reports that sales in the greater Phoenix market in November were 62 percent higher than the year before.

Prices either have bottomed out in dozens of these markets or are close to it. That's because the distressed sales component of local volume - short sales, REOs and foreclosures - has been declining slowly but steadily.

In his latest forecast, Jay Brinkmann, chief economist for the Mortgage Bankers Association, says both existing and new home sales will be higher in 2010 than in 2009 - and 2009 was better than 2008.

No question that a key part of the energy in housing will be the direct result of stimulus efforts by the federal government - especially the two tax credit programs -- that will push sales and even pricing through mid year.

The overall economy, on the other hand, according to Brinkmann, is likely only to grow slowly in the first half of 2010, and not really warm up until the second half.

The heavy anchor dragging on national economic growth -- and on housing demand -- will continue to be unemployment. Brinkmann says that "the time of job destruction is over" in this cycle - that is, the number of new layoffs and new unemployment insurance claims filings are trending down.

But we haven't yet moved into the next phase nationwide - that of "job creation," which may not begin until later in the year, he says, and may be a long, slow process.

The National Association of Realtors' chief economist, Lawrence Yun, sees a strong sales year ahead - up 20 percent over 2009. In some markets, he also expects to see a return to modest and sustained price increases - anywhere from two to five percent on average.

Will higher interest rates put a big dent in these projections? Many economists are forecasting 30 year rates in the upper 5 percent range later in the year.

Those higher rates won't help - but last week they headed in the opposite direction. Thirty year fixed rates averaged 5.1 percent and 15 year rates were half a point below that - both down slightly from the week before, according to the Mortgage Bankers' national survey.

Published: January 19, 2010

Monday, January 4, 2010

Home Value Loss Now but Increased Pricing Expected in 2010

By Phoebe Chongchua, Realty Times
There’s bad news and good news coming out of the housing market. Forbes Magazine released study results by Local Market Monitor that showed the cities that lost the most value are concentrated in some areas of California, Florida, Nevada, and the Northeast.

These cities were impacted by local and national factors such as increased unemployment and the rising cost of housing which resulted in homebuyers gambling on the odds of whether they could afford long-term housing.

West Coast housing markets fared the worst, losing the most value—21.6 percent since their peak. Florida housing lost 31 percent, the Northeast lost an average of 8.6 percent, and the Midwest lost, on average, 5.6 percent. The top five cities to lose value in the West (most in California): in California--Merced, (-62.11 percent), Stockton (-54.29), Modesto (-52.42), Vallejo-Fairfield (-47.62), and in Nevada—Las Vegas-Paradise (-47.53) In the South, the top five cities to lose the most value are located in Florida: Port St. Lucie (-46.43), Cape Coral-Fort-Myers (-46.38), Naples-Marco Island (-43.63), Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice (-41.52), and Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach-Deerfield Beach (-39.93).

In the Northeast, the top five cities to lose value are: Providence-New Bedford, R.I. (-17.30), Worcester, Mass. (-16.17), Atlantic City, N.J. (-16.15), Poughkeepsie-Newburgh, N.Y. (-14.60), and Barnstable Town, Mass. (-14.48).

Moving to the Midwest, the top five cities to lose value are in Michigan: Detroit-Livonia (-30.66), Warren-Troy-Farmington Hills (-27.95), Flint (-27.47), Ann Arbor (-20.37), and Jackson (-17.30). Source: Forbes, Francesca, Levy (12/21/2009).

According to First American CoreLogic’s LoanPerformance Home Price Index, home prices are expected to fall another 4.2 percent in 45 of the largest housing markets before hitting bottom. The Press Release states that, “The declines will be driven primarily by the large levels of foreclosures in these areas. However, improvement in both levels of inventories and unemployment are projected to prevail in the spring of next year, resulting in an average year-over-year appreciation of just under one percent by October of 2010 for these metropolitan markets.

The report also stated that, “In August 2010, the index is projecting that 12-month appreciation for national home prices will be 4.6 percent and that home prices in two of the most depressed markets, California and Florida, will show gains in excess of 7 percent.” Cities that are projected to experience the strongest recovery in 2010 are primarily concentrated in the large urban areas of California: San Francisco (+5.7 percent), Los Angeles (+5 percent), San Diego (+4.7 percent) and Sacramento (+4.6 percent).

The report cautions that a large inventory of homes owned by banks but not yet on the market could affect the increased pricing progress. Mark Fleming, chief economist for First American CoreLogic stated in a December Press Release, "We are continuing to see improvements in the year-over-year home price change as prices have remained relatively stable since April. The additional government support for the housing market has stimulated demand and restricted supply in 2009.” However, Fleming, added, “How these government supports are removed in 2010 and the moderation of pending inventory and negative equity will be critical to the continued stability of the housing market.”

Wednesday, September 2, 2009

Pending Home Sales on a Roll, Up for Sixth Straight Month

Contract activity for pending home sales has risen for six straight months, a pattern not seen in the history of the index since it began in 2001, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in July, increased 3.2% to 97.6 from a reading of 94.6 in June, and is 12.0% higher than July 2008 when it was 87.1.The index is at the highest level since June 2007 when it was 100.7.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the housing market momentum has clearly turned for the better. “The recovery is broad-based across many parts of the country. Housing affordability has been at record highs this year with the added stimulus of a first-time buyer tax credit,” he said. “Other buyers are taking advantage of low home values before prices turn higher. Nationally, the typical mortgage payment now takes less than 25% of a middle-income family’s monthly income to buy a median priced home, with payment percentages so far in 2009 being the lowest on record dating back to 1970. As long as home buyers stay within their budget, mortgage payments will be very manageable,” Yun said.

NAR estimates that about 1.8 to 2.0 million first-time buyers will take advantage of the $8,000 tax credit this year, with approximately 350,000 additional sales that would not have taken place without the credit. Buyers have little time to act because they must complete the transaction by November 30, 2009 to qualify for the credit. Unless extended, contracts signed but not completed by that date will not be eligible- it is taking approximately two months to complete home sales in the current market.

The Pending Home Sales Index in the Northeast declined 3.0% to 78.8 in July but is 4.7% higher than July 2008. In the Midwest the index slipped 2.0% to 88.1 but is 8.1% above a year ago. In the South, pending home sales activity rose 3.1% to an index of 103.8 in July and is 12.0% above July 2008. In the West the index jumped 12.1% to 112.5 and is 20.0% above a year ago.

NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said Congress needs to keep the momentum going. “Even with a good recovery taking place, the market is not yet back to normal. With a gradual absorption of inventory, we are on the cusp of a general stabilization in home prices,” he said. “To ensure that housing has a broad stimulus to the overall economy and stays on sound footing, we’re encouraging Congress to extend the tax credit into 2010, and to expand it to all buyers of primary residences. The faster we stabilize home prices, the fewer families will face foreclosure and the quicker credit can be extended to other sectors of the economy,” McMillan said.

NAR’s Housing Affordability Index (HAI) stood at 158.5 in July, below the peak set in April but is still 36.0 percentage points higher than a year ago. The HAI is a broad measure of housing affordability using consistent values and assumptions over time, which examines the relationship between home prices, mortgage interest rates and family income.

Yun expects existing-home sales to rise through the fourth quarter. “Unless the tax credit is extended, no one should be surprised to see home sales drop in the first quarter of next year,” he said. “However, the fundamentals of the housing market and the economy are trending up, and we expect home sales to generally pick up in the second quarter of 2010. The buyer psychology may be shifting from, ‘Why buy now when I can purchase later,’ to ‘I don’t want to miss out on a recovery.’”

September 2, 2009, RISMEDIA

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Existing Homes Selling Fast - Record Fast

The volume of home re-sales has been on the upswing for four consecutive months.

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Sales of existing homes rose in July for the fourth consecutive month, lending support to economists who argue a recovery is near.

Sales of previously owned single-family homes were up 7.2% compared with June and 5% from July 2008, The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported Friday. The monthly gain was the largest on record for existing-home sales, which NAR has tracked since 1999.

"The housing market has decisively turned for the better," said Lawrence Yun, NAR's chief economist. "A combination of first-time buyers taking advantage of the housing stimulus tax credit and greatly improved affordability conditions are contributing to higher sales."

July home sales hit an annualized rate of 5.24 million proprieties, marking the first breach of the 5 million annualized rate mark since last September, when they hit 5.1 million. Since then, they have stayed in a very narrow range, bouncing between between January's low of 4.49 million and October's high of 4.94 million.

The July performance far exceeded expectations: A consensus of real estate experts had forecast sales of 5 million.
Low prices

Of course, homes should be selling. Prices have fallen more than 32% from their peaks, set in the summer of 2006. Plus, mortgage rates near historic lows makes the cost of purchasing a home lower than they've been in nearly 20 years.
0:00 /3:11Home Depot sees housing recovery

"In some recovering markets like San Diego, Las Vegas, Phoenix and Orlando, the demand for foreclosed and lower priced homes has spiked, and a lack of inventory is becoming a common complaint," Yun said.

Overall though, the national inventory rose by more than 7% to 4.09 million units. That will continue to keep prices low, according to Mike Larson, a housing analyst with Weiss Research.

"There's a bifurcation of the market," he said. "There's excess supply putting downward pressure on prices and people respond to the lower prices by buying homes."

Housing is its most affordable in many years, he pointed out. "Falling prices is not part of the problem, they're part of the solution," he said.

Hurting home sales have been stubborn increases in job losses. More than 6.7 million jobs have been lost since the beginning of 2008.

That's one reason why Robert Dye, a senior economist for PNC Financial Services (PNC, Fortune 500), is keeping his optimism in check.

"I wouldn't go overboard on this number," he said. "The economy is still healing and will continue to run into some bumps. But it does bode very well for the future and shows buyer confidence is increasing."

There is one potential bump, however: The looming end of the first-time homebuyers credit. The credit gave first-time homebuyers an up to $8,000 refund on their taxes if they close on a deal before Dec. 1. That credit has been motivating buyers, and when it expires, demand could dry up.

"Just like with the cash-for-clunkers program, we run the risk of a letdown as the program runs its course," Dye said.
Where homes are selling

Regionally, the strongest market was the Northeast, where sales soared by 13.4% to an annualized rate of 930,000. That was 3.3% higher than last July. The median price of homes sold during the month was $236,700, off 15% from last year.

Midwest sales rose 10.9% to a 1.22 million rate, 8% higher year-over-year. Prices there have sunk 5.9% over the past 12 months to a median of $157,200.

In the South, sales were up 7.1% from June and 5.4% from last July to a rate of 1.95 million. Price have dropped 7.1% to $164,500 over the past 12 months.

The only region reporting a slip in sales was the West, where they fell 1.7% to a rate of 1.13 million. That was ahead of last July, however, by 1.8%. The median price there was $202,300, a whopping 28% below what is was a year ago.

First Published: August 21, 2009: 10:19 AM ET
Money.cnn.com

Y-O-Y Condo Home Sales Rise For First Time Since 2005

Washington, D.C.--For the first time in five years, existing-home sales have increased for four months in a row, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). It is also the first time since November 2005 that sales are higher that the previous year.

Existing condominium and co-op sales jumped 12.5 percent to 630,000 units in July from 560,000 in June, and are 5.9 percent above the 595,000-unit level a year ago.

Overall existing-home sales, including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, rose 7.2 percent to 5.24 million units in July from a level of 4.89 million in June, and are 5.0 percent above the 4.99 million-unit pace in July 2008. The last time sales rose for four consecutive months was in June 2004, and the last time sales were higher than a year earlier was November 2005.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist is encouraged. “The housing market has decisively turned for the better. A combination of first-time buyers taking advantage of the housing stimulus tax credit and greatly improved affordability conditions are contributing to higher sales,” he says.

The median existing condo price for example was $178,800 in July, down 18.9 percent from July 2008.

The monthly sales gain was the largest on record for the total existing-home sales series dating back to 1999. “Because price-to-income ratios have fallen below historical trends, there are more all-cash offers. In some recovering markets like San Diego, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Orlando, the demand for foreclosed and lower priced homes has spiked, and a lack of inventory is becoming a common complaint,” Yun says.

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 5.22 percent in July from 5.42 percent in June; the rate was 6.43 percent in July 2008.

An NAR practitioner survey showed first-time buyers purchased 30 percent of homes in July, and that distressed homes accounted for 31 percent of transactions.

NAR President Charles McMillan, a broker with Coldwell Banker Residential Brokerage in Dallas-Fort Worth, said the first-time buyer tax credit is working. “In addition to first-time buyers, we’re also seeing increased activity by repeat buyers. While many entry-level buyers are focused on the discounted prices of distressed homes, they’re also freeing some existing owners to sell and make a move,” he says.

Total housing inventory at the end of July rose 7.3 percent to 4.09 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.4-month supply at the current sales pace, which was unchanged from June because of the strong sales gain.

The national median existing-home price for all housing types was $178,400 in July, which is 15.1 percent lower than July 2008. Distressed properties continue to weigh down the median price because they typically sell for 15 to 20 percent less than traditional homes.

Published: August 21, 2009

By Anuradha Kher, Online News Editor

www.multihousingnews.com