Real Estate Revisited
By Donald Jay Korn
Have real estate prices finally hit bottom? As far as home prices go, the data says they have. Prices are up across the board in 2010 compared to 2009. Many observers are doubtful, however, predicting further slippage. The pessimists point to the possibility of a double-dip recession, the expiration of housing tax credits and an increase in shadow inventory, as more troubled properties flood the market.
In fact, that inventory may be coming out of the shadows. There were more foreclosures this summer than in any three-month period since the housing bust began in 2006, according to RealtyTrac, a foreclosure listing service. Banks seized 288,345 properties in July through September, and are on pace to foreclose on 1.2 million homes by the end of 2010.
But the pipeline may slow due to a coordinated probe by the top prosecutors in all 50 states into improper foreclosures by the nation's largest loan servicers. The investigation comes after lawyers accused mortgage lenders of "robo-signing," or signing off on foreclosure documents without reviewing them as required by law.
Although the prosecutors have not called for mortgage lenders to freeze all foreclosures, mortgage lenders are taking various measures to ensure that their foreclosures are legal. As we went to press, Bank of America had halted foreclosure sales in all 50 states for a few weeks in October, and GMAC Mortgage and JPMorgan Chase stopped them in the 23 states that require court approval to complete foreclosures.
While the implications of these developments play out in the short term, it is becoming clear that lenders who have become major property owners, by default, may be manipulating the current housing cycle. "There are clear indications that the clogged foreclosure pipeline is being carefully managed on both ends by lenders and servicers," says James Saccacio, CEO of RealtyTrac in Irvine, Calif. In the longer term, such management might promote price stability (or stagnation, depending on one's point of view), both short- and long-term.
THE GOOD NEWS
According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the median sales price of existing family homes peaked in 2006 at $221,900. In 2009, that median price was $172,100-a drop of more than 22%. In the first seven months of 2010, the monthly medians ranged from $163,800 to $183,500, with the latest month (July) at $183,400. From July 2009 to July 2010, the median price was up 0.9%. Home prices in two out of four regions were up less than 5%, year over year, while the other two were down no more than 3%. Anyone looking for a statistical example of stability has found it.
Further evidence that housing prices have found a bottom comes from the Case Shiller 20-City Home Price Index. In the latest month to report-July 2010-prices were up 3.2% from a year earlier. "Ten of the 20 cities saw year-over-year gains and only one (Las Vegas) made a new bottom," says David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee at Standard & Poor's. "Judging from the recent behavior of the housing market, stable prices seem more likely" than a return to the lofty levels of 2005-2006.
Some industry observers are encouraged by these statistics. "Home values have shown stabilizing trends over the past year," says Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at NAR. He credits home-buyer tax credits for stimulating sales and bolstering prices.
Yun adds that houses have become more affordable in today's market. According to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index, 72.3% of the homes sold in the second quarter of 2010 were affordable to families earning the national median income of $64,400. That's just a shade below the historic peak of 72.5%, in the first quarter of 2009, and far above the level of three years ago, when less than half of the families earning the median income could afford the median-priced home.
"Residential housing may be quite inexpensive now, with prices down and the low cost of servicing debt," says Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott in Philadelphia. "The huge number of homes for sale just adds to the appeal of a buyer's market," he says.
Besides lower home prices, record low interest rates are helping to make housing more affordable. In mid-October, rates on 30-year fixed mortgages remained below 5%, the lowest level since May of 2009, when 30-year rates settled at 4.81%.
Monday, November 1, 2010
Thursday, September 23, 2010
Condo Deposits Must Be Returned Upon Request Judge Rules
Manhattan mega-developers are reeling after a federal judge ruled that complexes with more than 100 units must refund buyers' formerly non-refundable deposits upon request.
Manhattan Federal District Court P. Kevin Castel ruled Wednesday that developer Related Companies must pay back a $510,000 deposit — plus interest — to buyers wishing to back out of the deal, based on a slightly obscure 1968 law, the New York Times reported. Castel said an affiliate of Related Companies had failed to comply with a little-known federal law known as the Interstate Land Sales Full Disclosure Act.
The decision could allow buyers in any condo buildings with more than 100 units to get their deposits back, according to the Times.
"It's a free ticket out," one real estate lawyer told the newspaper.
Lawyers for Related told the Times they planned to appeal the decision.
By Nina Mandell, DNAinfo.com
Manhattan Federal District Court P. Kevin Castel ruled Wednesday that developer Related Companies must pay back a $510,000 deposit — plus interest — to buyers wishing to back out of the deal, based on a slightly obscure 1968 law, the New York Times reported. Castel said an affiliate of Related Companies had failed to comply with a little-known federal law known as the Interstate Land Sales Full Disclosure Act.
The decision could allow buyers in any condo buildings with more than 100 units to get their deposits back, according to the Times.
"It's a free ticket out," one real estate lawyer told the newspaper.
Lawyers for Related told the Times they planned to appeal the decision.
By Nina Mandell, DNAinfo.com
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Chicago Home Sales
So - several of my clients sent me this article and asked for my comments. I thought I would share this with you too! If a few ask, perhaps more would like to know....
Here you go: Averages are meaningless in our specific luxury market - we are not in the slightest changed by the drop in the $8k tax credit as none of our buyers are in that market. As always, the important information to study for your particular sale or purchase is- building by building and then tier by tier within that building. Nothing else is relevant.
As an example, most units at Trump and Heritage are up 20% over 6 months ago if they are in the prime tiers. In the not prime tiers, it is another story. In some of our other buildings, sales prices are lower by as much as 20%, but there are usually additional reasons - assessments got too high, a special need or special assessment got bad word of mouth going, too many desperate sellers...reasons. But proper marketing and patience gets the job done.
Building by building, tier by tier.
Our Fox Group sales numbers this year are excellent. Out of 5,000 Keller Williams Groups nation-wide, we performed #3. Why? Luxury market, direct marketing techniques, not relying on the old way of doing business. Half of our sales are "on us", meaning we find the buyers through direct means. A lot of luxury buyers are interested in buying "up", enjoying a finer home in a somewhat uncertain economy. While our year would be LOTS better if interested buyers could sell their own homes (Domino Effect), we have some who either have successfully sold or who are buying without selling first.
Person by person, building by building, tier by tier.
We are bullish on our market segment and our numbers show it! Do sellers need patience? Yes. Are lowest price units selling first? Yes again. In my 20 years in real estate, I have never seen a better chance to buy. And if that means savvy, informed sellers may take a little less, then that dictates that they should do that - and buy into the best market they are likely to see in their lifetimes. Sell for less, buy for less still. And buy well so you can appreciate value increase over time.
Basics. Location, location, location? NO! Value, Value, Value.
Here you go: Averages are meaningless in our specific luxury market - we are not in the slightest changed by the drop in the $8k tax credit as none of our buyers are in that market. As always, the important information to study for your particular sale or purchase is- building by building and then tier by tier within that building. Nothing else is relevant.
As an example, most units at Trump and Heritage are up 20% over 6 months ago if they are in the prime tiers. In the not prime tiers, it is another story. In some of our other buildings, sales prices are lower by as much as 20%, but there are usually additional reasons - assessments got too high, a special need or special assessment got bad word of mouth going, too many desperate sellers...reasons. But proper marketing and patience gets the job done.
Building by building, tier by tier.
Our Fox Group sales numbers this year are excellent. Out of 5,000 Keller Williams Groups nation-wide, we performed #3. Why? Luxury market, direct marketing techniques, not relying on the old way of doing business. Half of our sales are "on us", meaning we find the buyers through direct means. A lot of luxury buyers are interested in buying "up", enjoying a finer home in a somewhat uncertain economy. While our year would be LOTS better if interested buyers could sell their own homes (Domino Effect), we have some who either have successfully sold or who are buying without selling first.
Person by person, building by building, tier by tier.
We are bullish on our market segment and our numbers show it! Do sellers need patience? Yes. Are lowest price units selling first? Yes again. In my 20 years in real estate, I have never seen a better chance to buy. And if that means savvy, informed sellers may take a little less, then that dictates that they should do that - and buy into the best market they are likely to see in their lifetimes. Sell for less, buy for less still. And buy well so you can appreciate value increase over time.
Basics. Location, location, location? NO! Value, Value, Value.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Tricia Fox Group Sells Chicago!
The Tricia Fox Group is the 7th highest producing group in Keller Williams for the year to date (January to July)! We have had over $48 million in sales this year.
Local expertise, global reach, and experienced negotiators thinking outside the box. See what the Tricia Fox Group can do for you.
Local expertise, global reach, and experienced negotiators thinking outside the box. See what the Tricia Fox Group can do for you.
Thursday, July 29, 2010
What's Driving the Sale of Downtown Luxury Condos?
By Dennis Rodkin, Chicago Magazine
In the first few months of 2010, as some local developers slashed prices or staged auctions on their newly built condominiums, a small segment at the upper end of the condo market flourished. As Gail Lissner of Appraisal Research Counselors notes, “There are always wealthy people with the ability to buy.” The big difference lately is that those well-heeled folks have been shelling out princely sums to buy luxurious new condos in downtown high-rises. “These are not speculators buying cookie-cutter condos,” says Lissner. “By and large, they are buying to live in these really high-end, unique places.”
Consider these numbers: From the beginning of the year until the middle of May, about 40 downtown condos have been sold for $2 million or more—and most of those condos were in buildings that opened in the last two years. (Some sales may have not yet appeared in public records.) They ranged from an $8.182-million sale at the Elysian—the 60-story tower at 11 East Walton Street designed by Lucien Lagrange—to a three-bedroom unit that went for a little more than $2.24 million at Aqua, the much-praised skyscraper at 225 North Columbus Drive that Jeanne Gang designed for Magellan Development. (The Elysian sale was the highest price paid for a Chicago condo since November 2006, when a 61st-floor unit at the Park Tower—at 800 North Michigan Avenue—went for $8.275 million.)
What’s driving the sales? To update an old real-estate adage: timing, timing, timing. Many of these new elite homeowners made their decision to buy several years ago, while buildings were under construction or still in the planning stage—and before the recession punctured the real-estate boom. With those condo towers now ready for residents, the folks who agreed years ago to buy are finally inking the deals.
That’s generally what’s been happening at the Elysian, according to Caryl Dillon, who was the tower’s sales agent. Since January 1st, at least 16 buyers there closed on condos priced at $2 million or more (in addition to the $8.182-million sale already mentioned, one condo went for $7.25 million and another for $6.9 million). That’s on top of a first round of December 2009 closings at $2 million and up. Meanwhile, at The Legacy (which recently opened at 60 East Monroe Street), three units priced at more than $2 million were among the first closings in the building—and usually the earliest buyers sign off on the earliest closings. (Since condos on a building’s bottom floors are often finished first, some lower-level, lower-priced units bought during construction can also be among the earliest closings.)
Buyers who signed contracts before the bust could have opted to cancel their contracts when the economy soured—as did numerous buyers of medium-priced homes. But “10 percent [the standard deposit on a condo] is a lot to walk away from” on a multimillion-dollar sale, Lissner says. Still, as she suggests, it’s also likely that for many of these rich buyers “their lifestyle hasn’t changed in the downturn.”
Janet Owen, a Sudler Sotheby’s International agent who works exclusively in the luxury market, points out that many rich people have not had to worry about the tight mortgage-financing climate that has contributed to the drag on the larger real-estate market. Mortgage lenders have been requiring bigger down payments, higher credit scores, and more detailed documentation of financial histories from average buyers. “These aren’t issues [wealthy potential homeowners] have to think about,” says Owen. On top of this, she notes, “their buying had nothing to do with the $8,000 federal tax credit.”
That is especially true of well-to-do buyers who made their purchase decisions recently. In early May, someone paid $2.3 million for a previously owned condo on the 51st floor of the Trump International Hotel & Tower (that building, at 401 North Wabash Avenue, opened in 2008). Another buyer spent $3.45 million in April for a 54th–floor condo at 55 East Erie that an investor had held on to since 2003. These new purchasers “are almost always cash buyers,” says Tere Proctor, who was the director of sales at Trump before returning to agency work (at Koenig & Strey Real Living). “They see the value in buildings like Trump and the Elysian, and they’re banking on knowing that whenever the market gets better, they will be holding valuable real estate.”
Read the full article and see building highlights here.
In the first few months of 2010, as some local developers slashed prices or staged auctions on their newly built condominiums, a small segment at the upper end of the condo market flourished. As Gail Lissner of Appraisal Research Counselors notes, “There are always wealthy people with the ability to buy.” The big difference lately is that those well-heeled folks have been shelling out princely sums to buy luxurious new condos in downtown high-rises. “These are not speculators buying cookie-cutter condos,” says Lissner. “By and large, they are buying to live in these really high-end, unique places.”
Consider these numbers: From the beginning of the year until the middle of May, about 40 downtown condos have been sold for $2 million or more—and most of those condos were in buildings that opened in the last two years. (Some sales may have not yet appeared in public records.) They ranged from an $8.182-million sale at the Elysian—the 60-story tower at 11 East Walton Street designed by Lucien Lagrange—to a three-bedroom unit that went for a little more than $2.24 million at Aqua, the much-praised skyscraper at 225 North Columbus Drive that Jeanne Gang designed for Magellan Development. (The Elysian sale was the highest price paid for a Chicago condo since November 2006, when a 61st-floor unit at the Park Tower—at 800 North Michigan Avenue—went for $8.275 million.)
What’s driving the sales? To update an old real-estate adage: timing, timing, timing. Many of these new elite homeowners made their decision to buy several years ago, while buildings were under construction or still in the planning stage—and before the recession punctured the real-estate boom. With those condo towers now ready for residents, the folks who agreed years ago to buy are finally inking the deals.
That’s generally what’s been happening at the Elysian, according to Caryl Dillon, who was the tower’s sales agent. Since January 1st, at least 16 buyers there closed on condos priced at $2 million or more (in addition to the $8.182-million sale already mentioned, one condo went for $7.25 million and another for $6.9 million). That’s on top of a first round of December 2009 closings at $2 million and up. Meanwhile, at The Legacy (which recently opened at 60 East Monroe Street), three units priced at more than $2 million were among the first closings in the building—and usually the earliest buyers sign off on the earliest closings. (Since condos on a building’s bottom floors are often finished first, some lower-level, lower-priced units bought during construction can also be among the earliest closings.)
Buyers who signed contracts before the bust could have opted to cancel their contracts when the economy soured—as did numerous buyers of medium-priced homes. But “10 percent [the standard deposit on a condo] is a lot to walk away from” on a multimillion-dollar sale, Lissner says. Still, as she suggests, it’s also likely that for many of these rich buyers “their lifestyle hasn’t changed in the downturn.”
Janet Owen, a Sudler Sotheby’s International agent who works exclusively in the luxury market, points out that many rich people have not had to worry about the tight mortgage-financing climate that has contributed to the drag on the larger real-estate market. Mortgage lenders have been requiring bigger down payments, higher credit scores, and more detailed documentation of financial histories from average buyers. “These aren’t issues [wealthy potential homeowners] have to think about,” says Owen. On top of this, she notes, “their buying had nothing to do with the $8,000 federal tax credit.”
That is especially true of well-to-do buyers who made their purchase decisions recently. In early May, someone paid $2.3 million for a previously owned condo on the 51st floor of the Trump International Hotel & Tower (that building, at 401 North Wabash Avenue, opened in 2008). Another buyer spent $3.45 million in April for a 54th–floor condo at 55 East Erie that an investor had held on to since 2003. These new purchasers “are almost always cash buyers,” says Tere Proctor, who was the director of sales at Trump before returning to agency work (at Koenig & Strey Real Living). “They see the value in buildings like Trump and the Elysian, and they’re banking on knowing that whenever the market gets better, they will be holding valuable real estate.”
Read the full article and see building highlights here.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Home Affordability is the best it has been in decades!
Daniel Kelley is the lead real estate analyst and portfolio manager of the Fidelity Select Construction and Housing Portfolio.
"Having just gone through a potentially once-in-a-lifetime down market, there is a bright light. Home affordability is the best in decades. In fact, on average, today's homebuyers have the lowest mortgage payments as a percentage of income in 30 years," wrote Kelley in a recent research report.
"Having just gone through a potentially once-in-a-lifetime down market, there is a bright light. Home affordability is the best in decades. In fact, on average, today's homebuyers have the lowest mortgage payments as a percentage of income in 30 years," wrote Kelley in a recent research report.
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